AustinTXEstates

The Fed reiterated last week that in March of 2010, they will be ending their Mortgage Security Buyback program, a big part of what has kept interest rates low throughout 2009. It won’t be a sudden drop-off, rather a slow decrease in these purchases until March, when there will be no more.

With the Fed no longer spending the tens of billions of dollars monthly on mortgage securities, we will only have the private sector to fill in the gap. When that happens, we can naturally expect mortgage rates to rise. “The difference in monthly mortgage payments of 5% or 6% can be measured in tens of thousands of dollars over the life of a loan,” one writer explains.

The Atlantic Monthly writes that the credit markets need securitization, and warns that it will only become more difficult to borrow money (and those loans will come at higher interest rates) as the Fed program ends. “If you think banks aren’t lending enough now, then you’d find a world with no securitization much worse. Yet, that might be what you get if the Fed ends its program.”

Why would the Fed remove such a successful program? The analogy of a bike with training wheels is often given – if you want an economy to strengthen, recover and stand on its own, at some point you need to take the wheels off. If the Fed keeps rates too low for too long, inflation will rise higher and you will expect to see rates rise anyway. Home loan rates will increase as demand is met, naturally, with or without the Fed.

We can expect the end of the first quarter of 2010 to be a telling time for the economy’s recovery, but the heavy favor of the buyer and borrower is going to change. These will be some of the last months we’ll see that are such great markets for buying a home or land. If you are considering buying, you should begin your search now.

Still thinking that house prices are going to decline further? Are you still anticipating the “deal of a lifetime” just around the corner? You’re about to be out of luck. It’s natural to look at the national economic news and think that we are going to see a further erosion in home prices but it looks like things are pointing up for Austin’s economy. We have seen a decline in high-end home prices but the average home price in Austin has remained relatively stable. But by far the biggest reason: Interest rates are anticipated to go up and that is going to price a lot of people out of the market. Compared to the week prior to August 24, 2009, the national 30-year mortgage rate is up 4 basis points from 5.14%. Compared to three months ago, the 30-year rate is up 20 basis points from its average rate of 4.98%. Why are interest rates going up? The massive government spending has the potential to lead to long term inflation, causing interest rates to rise. Ted Jones, Senior VP and Chief Economist at Stewart Title explains it best:

“…let’s assume a loan amount today of $100,000 with a 30-year fixed-rate residential loan at 5 percent. Nationwide at the time of this writing, the average 30-year rate was 4.85 percent per Freddie Mac. Fannie Mae forecasts an average rate in all of 2009 of 5.13 percent. So the 5 percent is a reasonable assumption.

The following table shows the monthly payment for each loan amount and interest rate. A buyer today at 5 percent interest borrowing $100,000 has a monthly principle and interest payment of $536.82. If prices decline 5 percent (and the loan amount does also) and interest rates rise just ½ of 1 percent, then the monthly payment remains the same ($539.40).

So if rates go up just 1 percent to 6 percent per year, then prices must drop at least 10 percent for that same buyer to qualify for the same monthly payment. A 1.5 percent increase in rates to 6.5 percent requires a 15 percent price decline, and a 2 percent increase necessitates a 20 percent price decline to qualify. Note: This 1 percent interest rate change to a 10 percent price change is only true when interest rates are 5 percent as they are today.”

Interest Rates vs. Price Changes

Admittedly, at the same loan-to-value ratio, as prices decline so does the down payment. Since, however, many buyers select the price range of homes they consider buying based on their monthly payment potential, rising rates may force future buyers into less expensive homes and hence properties they find less desirable.

So, if you are waiting to move up or to make that second home investment – don’t wait much longer! Postponing that purchase is going to price you out of the market and you are going to have to settle for something less or just wait for the next recession. Don’t get burned. Thanks to Ted Jones for letting us reprint part of his blog which can be found here.